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CPI Is Behind Us. Now Watch Yields For Clues The U.S. 10-year yield is edging higher again, up to 4.18%, marking a second straight gain and sitting near a one-month high. The driver is still the Iran war’s spillover into oil: even with brief relief on reserve-release headlines, crude remains elevated, keeping the market focused on an energy-driven inflation rebound. February CPI came in as expected—stable, but still above target—while the full impact of the oil surge hasn’t shown up in the data yet. With that backdrop, the Fed is expected to hold rates steady next week, and the market has repriced cuts down to roughly one 25bp cut, possibly in September, versus around 2.5 cuts before the war. US10Y is showing upside pressure in yields. Remember, bond prices and yields move inversely: when Treasuries are bought, prices rise and the fixed coupon implies a lower yield; when they’re sold, prices fall and the same coupon implies a higher yield. Watch yields for direction on the dollar. - Alan

GBP/USD Slips as Oil Shock Risk Hits Energy-Exposed UK GBP/USD is grinding lower as sterling rejects the 200-Day MA. For now, rallies look capped and price action reflects a market leaning defensive. With the Middle East conflict threatening oil flows, Britain stands out as an import-reliant economy that’s sensitive to higher fuel costs. Even with talk of potential reserve releases, crude is staying elevated, keeping inflation risk alive and pressuring the UK outlook. That macro pressure is starting to show up in rates too: UK government bonds sold off, pushing 10-year gilt yields higher. Higher yields don’t automatically help GBP in this context—if yields are rising because inflation and growth risks are worsening, it can still be sterling-negative. Global risk drivers have also pulled attention away from domestic issues, but political uncertainty hasn’t disappeared. Some analysts warn investors may be underpricing May election risk, adding another layer of uncertainty for GBP. - Alan

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DXY Safe-Haven Status May Turn Conditional. Watch Out For This: DXY is softening today as markets price in a higher probability of de-escalation after Trump’s comments. On the geopolitical front, the administration is signaling the Iran war may be nearing an end, but Defense Secretary Hegseth has warned that airstrikes could intensify. For now, markets are leaning toward resolution risk: oil is down 1.65%, easing the inflation shock and taking some support away from the dollar. The bigger shift is that USD is starting to trade like a conditional safe haven again. In this specific shock, the U.S. benefits from being relatively closed, energy independent, and geographically insulated—so risk flows can still favor the dollar when uncertainty rises. Watch oil and yields for directional clues. If oil keeps cooling and yields stay contained, DXY can fade. If oil re-bids and yields push higher, USD support returns quickly as prospects for higher inflation tick up. - Alan

AUD/USD Up 1% as Markets Price RBA Hikes Regardless of the Backdrop AUD/USD is up about 1% on the day and pushing into a key resistance zone near 0.7150. This is a level that can decide whether the move extends or stalls. The currency has shown some relative strength during the flash of risk-off trading we saw. Since the U.S.-Iran strikes kicked off on March 1, EdgeFinder’s AUD scorecard has stayed bullish from March 4 through today, showing consistent underlying support. Last week’s COT data had AUD near the top with +2.6% net accumulation, and the broader Top Setups view continues to flag the AUD basket as the strongest. The core driver remains rates. Australia’s inflation backdrop has stayed elevated, with CPI around 3.8% across the last four prints. If global inflation spills over from geopolitics, it only reinforces the “higher-for-longer” profile. With the RBA decision next week, markets are now pricing two hikes by August and a strong chance of three by year-end, implying a peak near 4.5%. - Alan

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